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Post Us Afghanistan – Are Afghanis Heading Towards Balkanization?

Soviet war in Afghanistan

 The hasty termination of the US Forever War in Afghanistan will have far-reaching implications not only for the Afghanis but for the regional countries as well, especially for Afghanistan-Pakistan Region (APR). The War, which taxed the US economy with approx 800 Billion Dollars and a life toll of around 2200 troops, is perturbing US masses, as desired dividends are nowhere to be seen. Until 2018, the Afghan Taliban was in possession/ control of approximately 55% of Afghan territory, but they have either increased their physical occupation to 80% in the last six months, or their influence is amounting to said quantified claim.

Islamic emirates of Afghanistan

The Islamic Emirate’s expansion (predominantly Sunni Sect) is becoming worrisome to regional powers like Iran, Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and India. India’s worry is frustrating in nature; firstly, they are witnessing their sinking investment of over 11 Billion Dollars, and secondly, they contemplate a possible surge in freedom movement inside Indian Occupied Kashmir through Taliban assistance. Iran’s worry is understandable, being Shia Sect’s dominant state. Lastly, Uzbek and Tajiks are seemingly wary of Islamists’ expansion and are likely to assist the US with a military basis.

The Blitzkrieg of the Taliban’s invasion is exponentially expanding, and Afghan National Army is rapidly succumbing to them. Moreover, capturing key border crossing places and choking maximum GLOCs are again becoming troublesome for the Afghan Government. Now, it is estimated by Military Pundits that Ghani’s Government may not withstand the Taliban’s invasion for more than six months. The above military tactical maneuvering by the Taliban and their simultaneous diplomatic engagement with China, Iran, and Russia are testimony of their improved strategic orientation.

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“Forever War” Afghanistan

Now the important question is that why the US abruptly terminating its ‘Forever War‘ in Afghanistan?? Is the US terminating ‘Forever War’ or transiting it into ‘Hybrid Warfare‘ by intelligently disengaging itself and embroiling Regional Powers into it to taste its simmering effects? Is the US all set to apply the Russian model of Syria in Afghanistan through its ‘Private-Military Contractors‘? As Russians successfully saved Asad’s Regime in Syria, the US may have planned to play the same game through their ‘Blackwater Mercenaries.’

Ethnic Diversity in  Afghanistan

The ethnic diversity of Afghanistan and political rigidity of all belligerents coupled with the application of Hybrid Warfare is a readymade recipe of impending chaos and civil war, which may lead Afghanistan towards Balkanization. Thus, immediate formulation of the National Afghan Government with equal power-sharing by all stakeholders can be the last ray of hope in a current quagmire.

References:
1- Image Credit (Featured Image & Post Image)

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